Climate scientists are almost completely unanimous in their claim that the Earth is warming to dangerous levels. Carbon emissions and greenhouse gasses are filling the Earth’s atmosphere at record levels. The consequences of such changes in our environment are predicted to be cataclysmic. The scientific community estimates that if their calculations are correct, mankind will enter a very dangerous era. Mass migration, food shortages, extreme weather, and war are all very likely potential results.
In January of 2016, NASA released a report which confirmed 2015 as the warmest year on record. But with 2016 almost concluded, climate scientists have already crowned this year as the warmest on record with average temperatures exceeding the 20th-century average by almost 1 degree Celsius. Another astounding fact is that while average temperatures have increased by almost 1 degree Celsius since 1880, almost 70% of that change has occurred over the past 30 years, as reported by NASA.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Temperatures have not just increased, they have increased more and more rapidly over the past couple of decades. Since the 1980’s temperatures have been rising at about 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade, which means that temperatures will increase more in the next 50 years than they have over the past 130 years, according to the IPCC. The IPCC estimates that warming is likely to exceed 2 degrees Celsius by 2100. Furthermore, the IPCC has taken the position that it is more likely that average temperatures will exceed 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century than it is that temperatures will not exceed 2 degrees. These predictions are on the modest side of things, for while the IPCC has indicated that a 2-degree increase is likely, it has also pointed out that a doubling of carbon emissions above preindustrial levels – something we are well on our way to achieving – is likely to produce a temperature increase of between 4.5 degrees and 6.0 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
So what is causing the increase in temperature? This is the important question! Climate experts attribute the rise in temperature to human activity, and blame this increase on the tremendous rise in greenhouse gases (GHG) produced by the burning of fossil fuels. The majority of scientific societies and associations, such as the U.S. National Academy of Science, the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have concluded that climate change is the consequence of excess GHGs in the Earth’s atmosphere.
The reason why climate experts believe that climate change is currently being caused by human activity is due to the fact that over the past 150 years the concentration in GHGs in the atmosphere has risen dramatically. These dramatic increases in GHGs are directly linked to rising temperatures. According to the American Chemical Society, since the industrial age began around the year 1750, atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased by 40% and methane has increased by 150%. Furthermore, there was about 550 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide during that time, whereas today there is about 740 billion metric tons. These sharp increases have resulted in the Earth holding onto much more of the Sun’s energy, further heating Earth above its typical temperature range.
The greenhouse effect is not new science! It is only recently that scientists have begun to understand the implications of its current findings in the area of increased levels of GHGs like carbon dioxide and methane. More specifically, the climate experts have identified a three-step process in their understanding of climate change:
(1) humans cause the emission of more GHGs
(2) the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere increases
(3) the GHGs in the atmosphere cause the Earth to retain more energy, so temperatures go up.
To illustrate this process, according the American Chemical Society, the Earth puts a little more than 9 billion metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere each year, but only about 5 billion metric tons is removed from the system.
A simple explanation for the increases is mankind’s devotion to burning fossil fuels like coal and oil. The emissions from the burning of these fuels contributes heavily to the increases in carbon emissions that are trapped in the Earth’s atmosphere. As reported by theU.S. Energy Information Association, the U.S. is currently the number one consumer in the world of fossil fuels and is also the number one domestic oil producer in the world as well. The U.S. consumed more than 19 billion barrels of oil in 2014. It is estimated that in 2016 the worldwide consumption of oil will be over 37 billion barrels a year. While there are other contributors to the huge increases in carbon emissions, such as deforestation and emissions from airplanes, it important to note that the IPCC projects that C02 levels will increase by 150% by the end of the century unless mankind changes its current practices.
One of the most dangerous consequences of the sharp increases in carbon pollution is a dramatic increase in sea levels. In its most conservative prediction, the IPCC anticipates a rise in sea level of about 2 feet by the end of the century. Many other experts believe that sea levels will rise at an increase of between 15 and 20 feet. In a paper published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the experts point out that the last time the Earth’s temperature increased to the levels that we are witnessing today, back almost 3 million years ago when temperatures increased by between 3-5 degrees Celsius, sea levels rose almost 20 feet.
What is causing the rise in sea levels? One of the reasons is quite simple: as temperatures increase, water molecules expand in size. But the leading cause to a dramatic increase in sea levels is the melting and contraction of the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. In Greenland alone, every minute there is 430,000 gallons of water poured into the ocean due to the melting of Greenland’s polar ice sheets, as reported by The New York Times. Again, climate scientists point to the past to understand our current predicament, and what they have found it telling. The last time GHG levels were as high as they are predicted to be in the near future, there were no large ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica.
The potential results of these changes are cataclysmic and will render a future for the lives of mankind’s upcoming generations that is filled with conflict and death. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has estimated that by 2050, there will be about 200 million migrants displaced due to land reduction as a direct result from climate change and the rise in sea levels. What would the impact be of a 5 ft rise in sea levels? Many countries would be either completely under water, or partially under water. Take for example Bangladesh, where 20 percent of the nation sits at a level that is just above 3 ft or lower. If sea levels rise at a modest level of just 1 meter, 20 percent of Bangladesh will be gone, and over 20 million people will be forced to flee their homes.
Thousands of islands will be completely eliminated. Popular islands such as the Maldives Islands and the Solomon Islands would be under water with a sea level increase of just 3-4 feet. Millions of people would be displaced. In the U.S., almost 3 million people live in coastal regions that lay 1 meter above the sea level. It is also estimated that a total of 26 U.S. cities would experience extreme flooding as a result of climate change, impacting almost 150 million. Millions of Americans would be displaced. It would be chaos to say the least, as millions of people from all over the planet would be competing for land in order to have a place to live. A land crisis would certainly impact agricultural development, which would in turn cause food shortages as countries and people compete for land. War would most likely break out causing the death of thousands more and creating even more destruction.
Apart from climate change causing dramatic increases in sea levels, contributing to the decrease of the polar ice caps and the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, the virtual elimination of many tropical islands and coastal regions, and the forceful removal of millions of people from their homes, climate change will result in many other negative consequences. Climate change will cause more frequent extreme weather events such as hurricanes and other devastating storms. Furthermore, climate change will have a direct impact on agricultural development and growth as temperatures fluctuate, weather patterns change, and seasons are manipulated. The result of all of these variables will be that land shortages will be accompanied by food shortages, which will manifest in human competition and conflict.
Much of the predictions being made about temperature increases, sea levels rising, and massive waves of migration, are based on assumptions concerning the rate of growth in the level of greenhouse gas emissions over the next couple of decades. The experts unanimously recognize that when emissions reach a certain rate of growth, eventually, terrible results will follow. If the past is any indicator of the future, then it should be clear that the rate of growth in GHG emissions only increases over time as it has done over the past three decades.
Climate experts warn that unless we are able to reign in the GHG emissions that are being pushed into the atmosphere every year, we will witness the terrible consequences predicted for future generations. In order to avoid the coming calamity, cuts to carbon emissions are non-negotiable. The U.S. must lead the way in the effort to dramatically cut back on the fossil fuels that are being consumed. In order to substantially make a difference in the reduction of GHG’s that enter the Earth’s atmosphere, the U.S. is going to have to lead by example and significantly reduce the oil it produces and the fossil fuels that it consumes. Until then, the world will be headed towards a future that promises struggle, conflict, and turmoil. The fault will be ours alone.
